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X-WR-CALNAME:IIEP UBA-CONICET
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://economicas.uba.ar/iiep
X-WR-CALDESC:Eventos para IIEP UBA-CONICET
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TZID:America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires
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DTSTART:20240101T000000
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires:20251015T090000
DTEND;TZID=America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires:20251015T110000
DTSTAMP:20260421T200604
CREATED:20251003T134437Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251015T132935Z
UID:20702-1760518800-1760526000@economicas.uba.ar
SUMMARY:El presupuesto nacional para 2026: ¿Qué podemos esperar sobre la economía que se nos viene?
DESCRIPTION:Seminario AFISPOP \nEl presupuesto nacional para 2026: ¿Qué podemos esperar sobre la economía que se nos viene? \nPartiendo de las pautas incorporadas en la planificación del Presupuesto Nacional para 2026 recientemente presentado por el Poder Ejecutivo Nacional\, analizaremos los principales lineamientos programados\, explorando sus implicancias para el desarrollo del Estado Nacional y la economía argentina en su conjunto. Abordaremos el contexto macroeconómico y los supuestos fiscales que constituyen la base del programa presentado\, así como la estimación de recursos y los principales cambios y continuidades esperables para las políticas públicas durante el próximo año. En la coyuntura vigente este instrumento resulta clave para articular las pautas fiscales con el desarrollo económico y social del país. \nExpositores | Equipo AFISPOP \nLugar | FCE-UBA | Aula 232 \nFormato híbrido
URL:https://economicas.uba.ar/iiep/eventos/el-presupuesto-nacional-para-2026-que-podemos-esperar-sobre-la-economia-que-se-nos-viene/
CATEGORIES:AFISPOP
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires:20251015T130000
DTEND;TZID=America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires:20251015T150000
DTSTAMP:20260421T200604
CREATED:20251003T175435Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251015T133122Z
UID:20708-1760533200-1760540400@economicas.uba.ar
SUMMARY:Seminario de Investigación del IIEP | Chronic inflation and the costs of not addressing an upsurge in time
DESCRIPTION:Seminario de investigación del IIEP \nChronic inflation and the costs of not addressing an upsurge in time \nExpositor | Joaquín Waldman | Macro IIEP (UBA-CONICET) \n  \nThis article builds a novel database of large inflationary shocks in developing countries to assess their short- and long-term impacts on GDP using a synthetic control approach. It also examines the conditions under which these shocks evolve into chronic inflation\, applying a probit framework. We investigate both the mechanisms that trigger such accelerations and the outcomes they produce. The analysis yields three central findings. First\, large inflationary surges are predominantly stagflationary\, being mostly driven by supply-side shocks\, and exerting an immediate negative impact on GDP. Countries that immediately lean against inflation do not experience worse short-term growth outcomes compared to those that delay action\, but the latter suffer significantly greater long-term costs. Second\, the economic costs are considerably higher when inflation becomes chronic\, rather than being resolved quickly. Third\, the likelihood of evolving into chronic inflation depends crucially on policy responses\, even when controlling for the size and source of the initial shock. Specifically\, chronic processes are more likely when exchange rate depreciation and monetary expansion follow the shock\, while improvements in fiscal balance reduce this risk. Taken together\, these findings provide a strong argument against inaction\, even in the face of seemingly transitory shocks. \n  \nLugar FCE-UBA | Aula Olivera
URL:https://economicas.uba.ar/iiep/eventos/chronic-inflation-and-the-costs-of-not-addressing-an-upsurge-in-time/
LOCATION:UBA Córdoba\, Av. Córdoba 2122\, Buenos Aires\, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires\, 1425\, Argentina
CATEGORIES:Destacada,Seminario IIEP
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