{"id":7472,"date":"2024-08-09T17:48:16","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T20:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/?p=7472"},"modified":"2024-12-04T15:21:56","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T18:21:56","slug":"talk-to-fed-a-big-dive-into-fomc-transcripts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/talk-to-fed-a-big-dive-into-fomc-transcripts\/","title":{"rendered":"Talk to Fed: a Big Dive into FOMC Transcripts"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Talk to Fed: a Big Dive into FOMC Transcripts\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Daniel Aromi \n
\nDaniel Heymann<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/i>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tbajar<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

2024<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Working Papers 323, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Econom\u00eda (RedNIE)<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

We propose a method to generate \u201csynthetic surveys\u201d that shed light on policymakers\u2019 perceptions and narratives. This exercise is implemented using 80 time-stamped Large Language Models (LLMs) fine-tuned with FOMC meetings\u2019 transcripts. Given a text input, finetuned models identify highly likely responses for the corresponding FOMC meeting. We evaluate this tool in three different tasks: sentiment analysis, evaluation of transparency in Central Bank communication and characterization of policymaking narratives. Our analysis covers the housing bubble and the subsequent Great Recession (2003-2012). For the first task, LLMs are prompted to generate phrases that describe economic conditions. The resulting output is verified to transmit policymakers\u2019 information regarding macroeconomic and financial dynamics. To analyze transparency, we compare the content of each FOMC minutes to content generated synthetically through the corresponding fine-tuned LLM. The evaluation suggests the tone of each meeting is transmitted adequately by the corresponding minutes. In the third task, we show LLMs produce insightful depictions of evolving policymaking narratives. Thisanalysis reveals relevant narratives\u2019 features such as goals, perceived threats, identified macroeconomic drivers, categorizations of the state of the economy and manifestations of emotional states.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/i>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/i>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/i>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

Av. C\u00f3rdoba 2122 – 1\u00b0 piso (C1120 AAQ)
Ciudad Aut\u00f3noma de Buenos Aires |\u00a0 Argentina
Tel\/fax: +54 11 5285-6578\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

\u00bfQuer\u00e9s conocer nuestras novedades?\nSumate a nuestra lista de correo<\/a><\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Talk to Fed: a Big Dive into FOMC Transcripts Daniel Aromi Daniel Heymann bajar 2024 Working Papers 323, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Econom\u00eda (RedNIE) We propose a method to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[94],"class_list":["post-7472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-working-paper","tag-publicaciones"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7472"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7472\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8428,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7472\/revisions\/8428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}